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IN THE BOX
Written by Keith "CrappieKeith" Nelson - www.CKOutdoors.com
As we approach ice season our water temps are dropping.  48 degrees the last time I checked a few
days ago.  To be successful fishing, I'll refer to pannies, downsizing should be something you think
about.   Just as with early ice out using super small baits can make the difference to being skunked
and catching.

For me a 64th oz. is my go to jighead size.  An inch to a inch and a half bait is a killer size.  The
oxygen levels are still up there pretty good, but the water temperture is slowing those gilled
creatures down a bit from there warm water levels.   Small hair, feather or fur jigs can really
produce as well as some small plastics.
I've also seen a huge bait work more as a search bait to find that one hungry one out of a whole
pack of pannies.  The point is you never know.  Keep eliminating presentations until you find the
one.  I have not mentioned color yet.  Having several colors in different sizes of your baits enable
you to dial right in.  Live bait may also be the trick, again you just never know what they want
until you've identified the pattern.
Understand that the pressure can also have an effect on the fish.   They have this reaction to the
barometer since there senses are so accute.   If we can recognise their mood and/or moods and
match the size baits to the aggresive level they will exhibit we can be rewarded.

I have noticed that when the ice gets thicker and the oxygen gets lower, which by then all of the
weeds are dead which aided in creating that oxygen, the mood of the fish becomes even more
lethargic.  Going to an 80th or 100th oz head and a smaller profile seems to do the job.
You can tell if your using a flasher what their mood is.   On the "hot bite" days, you'll see those
fish rise up several feet to hit your bait.  Bigger baits work well here.   There is still a what I call
the ceiling.  That is where the fish will stop and come no higher.  This may be due to pressure or
thermocline.   During a neutral or negative bite that same fish may only rise a few feet or not at all.
The ceiling is much deeper on these days.   It will require much more "working" or "lifting" that
fish to trigger it's strike sense.   You can also tell for the most part by how deep it took the bait.   
If you are lipping them all of the time chances are they are negative.  A trick here is open your
hook.  If they inhale the bait then they most often are in an aggresive pattern.